China’s export strategy facing accession to the WTO for the first time since the major adjustment.In Europe and the United States will bid farewell to the excessive consumption pattern overall judgement, the Ministry of commerce is considered stable export strategy emphasis shifted to “create” the external demand.
In the Ministry of Commerce recently held multiple sessions, its interior to “create external demand” new export policy guiding, consensus has been reached.To speed up the free trade area and border cooperation zone construction, will become the next policy focus.
Previously, the international demand is very exuberant, the Ministry of Commerce of the policy is to encourage the Chinese products in the international market share continues to expand.
Department of commerce international division to provide information display, this round of economic crisis, China and trade partner of China bilateral trade trend rise or drop speed is slow, the main export products in China since the trade partner of China’s market share to keep rising.Department of commerce international division thinks, “a free trade agreement in stabilizing external demand, maintain share plays an active role.”
In addition, the Ministry of commerce is also considering a loan to third countries to promote its purchases of Chinese products, the feasibility of the strategy.
How to “create” the external demand
In 2001, after joining the WTO, China’s foreign trade growth for 5 consecutive years to maintain in 20% above, creating the “China export myth”.In 2007, exports accounted for a high proportion of up to 37.57% GDP.
During this period, China’s foreign trade policy after the initial “promoting exports”, Bo Xilai “minus surplus”, Chen Deming’s 2008 “not to mention the minus surplus” and 2009 “to export” of evolution.
A member of the CPPCC National Committee, the national tax administration deputy director Xu Shanda said: “this period of external demand is strong, as long as the enterprise actively to produce, it is big enough to accommodate our products market.So the key of policy is also in production increase production, encourage manufacturers to export.”
This round of economic crisis broke out, China according to the previous policy logic introduced a series of measures to stimulate exports, in 11 months the seven raised the export tax rebate rate.
The Ministry of commerce also with the central financial institutions, introduced a new policy of trade financing, to further strengthen the small and medium-sized enterprises in financing of exports, export credit insurance and export financial guarantees and other support.Governments also further improve the government service, improve customs facilitation, to speed up the import and export commodity inspection and quarantine.
But a series of policies to strengthen, and did not stop the decline in exports.Before 7 months, the export trade of $627100000000, down 22%.
Despite continuous five months were up for the industry saw a hope, and expect exports at the end of the three quarter and fourth quarter rally.But exports are seasonal factors, so no reference value chain.
In this process, the Ministry of Commerce has been for the change of international situation judgment.Finally, in Europe and the United States may leave excessive consumption mode, Chinese productivity is still expanding, European and American new economy industry will return to homeland and a series of judgment gradually clear, pure wait for Europe and the United States demand pick up, has been unable to effectively guarantee the stable growth of Chinese exports.
For China to abroad “to create” demand, speed up the free trade area and border cooperation zone construction, become the most recent commerce department internal consensus conference on the core of policy.
Financial crisis, China on free trade partner country exports performed significantly better in the same period of global exports.From 1 to April, China’s main export products for the global exports all appear negative growth.However, part of the main products rely on free trade agreement, in their respective trade partners demand atrophy, financing difficult circumstances, to achieve the export growth trend.
Commerce Department data show, 10 main export commodities, there are 7 kinds of products to the free trade partner in the global export export situation good, furniture, luggage, footwear growth reached 214%, 72% and 52%.
According to the China has implemented the free trade agreement, 2009 is the several products tariff concession “good year”, tax reduction ratio from 10% to 40%, thus free trade agreement preferential policy on China’s export promotion.
In addition to free trade area and Border Cooperation Zone, through the cooperation of these poorer countries to improve the living standards of the people, enhance the consumptive ability, also to a certain extent, to create a trade demand.
In addition to acceleration, border area construction, through tax incentives to promote exports, lend money to other countries to start construction, to promote their demand for Chinese products, become a more bold idea.
Perhaps out of coincidence, when the Ministry of commerce is on the move the feasibility of how much time, member of the CPPCC National Committee, the national tax administration deputy director Xu Shanda produced his “Chinese version of the Marshall plan”.
Xu Shanda said: “the strategy is to be particularly strong when, how we and others to grab share.But when the shrinking external demand, our previous policy is invalid.”
So we wait for Europe and the United States market recovery is it right??The Ministry of Commerce in a previous study concluded that, even if the United States of America’s economic recovery, but their pattern of consumption is likely to change.The United States is the original zero savings, the savings rate is now the United States of America 6%-7%.
The Ministry of Commerce official said: “the economy of trade proportion will not unlimited growth, 2007 is Chinese ceiling.”
But in China the 4 trillion investment plan of continuous stimulation, China still in the rapid growth of productivity.
According to the State Council Development Research Center of an internal report shows: China’s capacity utilization rate only for the most part 50%60%.Mainly in the iron and steel, cement, aluminum, copper, zinc, ore and other basic industries, petrochemical metallurgical industry overcapacity is very serious.
Due to the short Chinese domestic demand appears hard rapidder growth, domestic investment demand in 2010 would be difficult to keep at such a rate of growth, the excess capacity of the product must be in the world to find a buyer.
To this, Xu Shanda to the Ministry of Commerce recently submitted a proposal to expand, the external demand, reduce the production version of the “Marshall plan”.
The plan initial size of China spent $500000000000 of foreign exchange reserves, to provide loans to developing countries in Asia, and requires the enterprises in China to undertake project invite public bidding and purchasing.
According to the plan, this plan can increase the export of China now, digestion of excess capacity, but also can promote the process of internationalization of the RMB, and for China to raise a dweller to consume time and financial resources.